明智地投资，对冲通货膨胀

商业地产价格

比赛开始了!  哪个会飞得更高更快? 天然气价格? 通货膨胀? 利率? 房产升值?  房地产价值处于领先地位, 过去12个月的年化增长率为21%, 但这些回报是可持续的吗?  “Commercial property prices have stopped going up,彼得·罗塞蒙德说, 格林街战略研究的联合主管. “That’s quite a change from last year, but one look at the yield curve and it’s easy to see why. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 100 basis points since December and borrowing costs, whether that’s mortgages or unsecured notes issued by REITs, 涨得更多了.“然而, it is very important to remember that Commercial Real Estate should be a long march, 不是短暂的冲刺, even though we have had a nice sprint since the Covid lows of 2020.    The real money in real estate comes from long term compounding of value, over years of careful holding and curating of the property.

The Best Investments to Hedge 通货膨胀 During Uncertainty 

One thing is certain in the near term, and that is uncertainty. The country is apparently entering a period of slower growth, which can be expected after the torrid pace of the past two years. 然而, higher interest rates will definitely impact housing, 供应链问题也是如此, including the unaffordability of developable land.  I heard that mortgage interest rates would have to get to 5.75% before the housing market will really stop, and we are at about 4.现在的75%.  While higher borrowing costs should cause commercial property prices to at least stall, the compression of cap rates has actually increased, largely because of the “inflated” amount of money looking to get invested. 另类投资，如现金, 哪种货币在通货膨胀率下会贬值, and the stock market are looking pretty dicey right now.  Everyone knows that real estate is a good inflation hedge because it is a hard asset and rents can be increased at the rate of inflation at least, 导致价值上升.  因此, 商业地产一直在, 现在是, and will probably remain a very hot haven for investment dollars.

软着陆还是衰退?

But what happens if we really hit a recession because the Federal Reserve can’t engineer what is known as a Soft Landing?  A Soft Landing means they raise interest rates enough to cool off the torrid inflation, 但不要让经济陷入衰退.  如果美联储能在今年实现软着陆, 这将是为数不多的几次, 过, 他们成功了. The uncertainties of this year, known and unknown, are not likely to help them in their mission.

城市增长

我的回答是上帝保佑(中部)德克萨斯州!  Austin is the fastest growing metropolitan area in the U.S. 圣安东尼奥排名第三，凤凰城排名第二.  Our San Antonio-New Braunfels Metropolitan Area grew 1.去年是4%，现在已经达到了2%.600万居民.  Most of the growth has been in New Braunfels and Comal County with a growth rate last year of an astonishing 7%, 根据美国农业部公布的估计.S. 人口普查局.  联合主演Insight说, ”相结合, the two main markets of Central Texas welcomed more newcomers than any area in the country outside of Phoenix.  This is despite the fact that nine other areas are larger than Greater Austin and San Antonio combined.”

Commercial Real Estate Investments and Development Remain Positive

So, with this population inflation solidly in our favor, it would appear that commercial real estate investment and development will remain positive even if we experience a slowdown or minor recession in the coming year or two.

零售中心市场

零售中心市场仍然紧张，为4.根据NAI Partners的数据，空置率为7%.  Foresite Research says, “San Antonio’s average multi-tenant retail asking cap rate … is 6.46%，低于去年的7%.2021年第三季度为0%.“然而，在奥斯汀，上限率不到6%.  在圣安东尼奥 there is almost 1-million square feet under construction with nearly 1-million delivered in 2021. 现在克罗格杂货店来到了我们的市场, which you may remember closed all of their stores here years ago.  他们显然带来了一个新概念, where they open up distribution centers in industrial areas and cater only to direct home delivery, by-passing the expensive retail stores like HEB and Wal-Mart. They are using robots and artificial intelligences to fill online grocery orders.  This will create some very interesting dynamics for shoppers.

工业、投资和办公市场

在圣安东尼奥, industrial property cap rates are now in the 4’s and investment properties are in very short supply.  然而, the office market has seen an increase in vacancies, up from 10.从去年的9%降至12%.1% this year, according to NAI Partners, with rents up about 30 cents per square foot to $22.04. 目前大约有1个.400万平方英尺正在建设中.

德州的财产税在上升

Property tax increases are continuing to be a big factor in tenant costs.  While the Appraisal District felt like they were being gentle the past two years, 因为Covid, they are putting 过yone on notice that this year will be rough, 考虑到房地产价值的增长.

圣安东尼奥和奥斯汀的上限利率

Cap Rates on Apartments in San Antonio are in the 4’s, 低于去年的5个, while in Austin cap rates are in the two’s (that is not a misprint).  We know one builder moving his operations to New Braunfels because he can no longer find buildable and affordable lots in the capital city. 想要开始争论? Tell someone from New Braunfels that they are “South Austin.”  Buda and Kyle have long accepted that as their fate, and probably San Marcos, too.

柯士甸住宅市场

I was talking to an Austin residential realtor recently.  It is the general “wisdom” that you must offer $10,000 over asking price just to get your name in the hat on an available property.  上个周末, 她以599美元的价格出售一处房产,000, and had multiple offers with the final contract going that weekend for $720,000!  保持奥斯汀的怪异，朋友.

但上帝的确保佑了(中部)德克萨斯州!