Uncertainty Yields Opportunity
May 10, 2022
You may remember the movie series, Men in Black. 在MIB 3中，有一个叫格里芬的可爱的外星人，他有预见未来的才能, 但他更进了一步，看到了未来结果的所有可能性! He intones, “So many possibilities!” Sort of like where we are now.
Economic Standing in 2022
利率的上升会压垮我们强劲的经济吗, or will the high inflation beat the FED to it? Will we have a “soft landing，避免经济衰退，或者俄罗斯会用核武器袭击乌克兰，把一切都搞得一团糟? And then there is China! And then there is Elon Musk! So many possibilities!
As anyone in leadership knows, you do your best to discover the facts, analyze your options and then make a decision, 完全知道你的行动可能会有好的结果，也可能会有不好的结果. 但你知道，优柔寡断的不作为比采取不完美的行动更糟糕, because at least you are moving forward. 你不能驾驶一艘死水里的船. 至少如果你正在搬家，当你看到需要的时候，你可以改变方向. So, 简单到像圣安东尼奥的商业地产, 让我们尽可能地考虑事实，然后继续前进.
“…where there is uncertainty,so there is also opportunity!”
Uncertainty Yields Opportunity
我认为，2008年的金融危机催生了低通胀的新常态, low interest rates, and eventually in 2018 ultra-low unemployment. 大流行打破了我们的正常意识，现在我们正在努力迎接下一个正常. 关于这场战争的结局有很多可能性. War, Inflation, Interest Rates, Politics, Supply Chain Disruptions, Boomers Retiring, Work from Home or not, 数万亿美元在场外寻找合理的投资, Climate Change, China vs. Taiwan, China vs. Covid, $3-trillion in crypto-currencies. etc., etc. So many possibilities! 但哪里有不确定性，哪里就有机会!
Office in Central Business District
So, let’s go back to what we do know. Office in the CBD is actually pretty strong. 韦斯顿把新的冰霜塔从市场上撤了下来因为他们找不到真正的, really high price, so they will refinance and keep it. Smart move. 杰斐逊银行的新大楼即将全部租出去, the Oxbow building at the Pearl only has 8,还有700平方英尺需要出租，甚至索托(卡文德·凯迪拉克旧址)也租了近50%, after a very slow start. Over 500,000平方英尺的库存已增加，包括转租空间, according to Kim Gatley of REOC. Out in the Exurbs, 随着医疗保健集团的扩张，医疗办公室正在蓬勃发展, 重新安置并赶上因新冠疫情而暂停的两年.
Work from Home vs. Back to the Office
The jury is still out on Work from Home vs. Back to the Office. 一位企业主告诉我，她的一个业务部门靠人际互动和协调发展. 他们在2020年封锁了两周，然后所有人都回到了办公室. 除非他们一起在办公室，否则他们无法正常工作. However, another section of her company, 哪个更倾向于分析和计算数据, 在家工作时，他们的工作效率提高了吗.
一些雇主，比如美国的保险公司.A.公司正在努力让员工重返办公室. In New York, J.P. 摩根大通一年前就要求他们的员工回到办公室工作, 但最近他们发现，为了留住和雇佣员工，他们必须更加激烈地竞争，因此他们已经退缩了. airbnb的员工现在可以在任何地方生活和工作.
Austin, Houston & Dallas Back in the Office
Maybe this is the tip of the Great Resignation? The Wall Street Journal 报道称，奥斯汀的上班族返回办公室的比例最高, at 60%; Houston is at 51% and Dallas at a 49% return rate. The WFH vs. office dilemma has yet to be resolved it seems.
Industrial on FIRE
工业正在火热，越来越多的面积进入市场. The metro area has 10.8 million SF under construction, which is 8% of the inventory, an enormous increase for a short period; 1% to 2% is typical. 例如:Wurzbach Parkway / West Avenue / Interpark Drive的54英亩土地出售给Stream Realty，用于650的开发,000 SF industrial park. 预计这将是一块零售用地(沃尔玛曾与之签订过合同)。, but now it will be an office service center, which is not usually considered a higher use. 在过去的18个月里，工业需求超过了供应 NAI Partners, which hasn’t happened since 2013. 今年第一季度，新建建筑面积为400万平方英尺，另有800万平方英尺.500万正在建设中，另有500万正在规划中. The largest spec development project ever, 640,000 SF, 奥克蒙特工业集团在410号和IH-10号东开了一个项目. 但这包括900年的Navistar大项目,000 SF, and the Aisin 500,000 SF plant in Cibolo near IH-10 East. 亚马逊已经在I-35 NE附近的Crosswinds Drive、I-35 Loop 410以南的高速公路上启动了设施. 他们最近在洛克希尔-塞尔玛的1604路买了一块64英亩的地皮. 亚马逊可能已经接近完成他们将要做的事情了, 而且不会继续以这种迅猛的速度扩张, maybe even downsizing a bit.
Industrial Expansion
整个德州的工业发展势头强劲. Austin is ranked #1 nationally with 20.6% growth in inventory. 我认为伯格斯特罗姆以东130州的大型特斯拉工厂对此有贡献. Houston is #3 with 11.8% growth. DFW had 11.5%所以这意味着5000万平方英尺的额外工业建设，因为大都会已经这么大了.
Fun Fact: City of San Antonio collects about $759-million a year from property taxes; not their only source, but the largest by far. How much did your tax bill go up this year? 20% is a common answer; I don’t have a city-wide summary, but let’s just go with that number. 如果市政府因财产税增加而增加了20%的税收, 那么，纽约市将有大约1.5亿美元的额外资金可供使用. 我真的很想知道他们对这次“意外之财”有什么计划，因为这是一次非常重要的加薪. 它肯定超过了通货膨胀，尽管今年的平均通胀率为7%. 学区和医院也得到了额外的收入. Inquiring minds want to know.